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PENTINGNYA ANALISA FUNDAMENTAL
spekulan besar/fun manager alias big boys sangat mempengaruhi perdagangan forex!!
Kalau mata uang suatu negara dipatok pada nilai tetap, spekulan memang tidak lagi bisa main. Hanya saja, menurut Theo, konsekuensinya ada dalam perekonomian negara yang bersangkutan. Bagi Theo, reformasi ekonomi apa pun yang dipilih pemerintah tak penting benar, asal bisa mengatasi segenap konsekuensinya. Misalnya, pelepasan batas intervensi mensyaratkan perbaikan ekonomi total, sedangkan pematokan nilai uang mensyaratkan cadangan devisa yang cukup dan perbankan yang sehat.
Tak bisa pula dilepaskan faktor keberanian bank sentral. Kepada siapa pun yang mau memaksakan kehendak, bank sentral tak boleh setengah hati. Kalau perlu habis-habisan berintervensi. Jika ini terus berlanjut, dan dunia membuktikan konsistensi kita, pasar pun akan segan," kata Theo. "Betapa pun kuat dan nafsunya spekulan, kalau menghadapi otoritas moneter yang teguh dan konsisten, mereka juga berpikir untuk main-main. Seperti pernah dialami Hongkong, para spekulan menghentikan serbuan karena tahu Inggris berada di belakangnya. Tak seorang pun ragu ketangguhan sistem keuangan Inggris.
Kasus Indonesia, menurut Theo, adalah bukti kesekian dari pelecehan para Big Boys terhadap otoritas moneter. Permainan selisih kurs antara Rupiah - AS $ jauh lebih mudah ketimbang permainan selisih kurs Yen - AS $ atau Mark Jerman - AS $ yang didukung otoritas moneter sangat berwibawa, dan karenanya disebut hard currencies. Akibatnya sangat mudah diterka, bahkan oleh ibu-ibu rumah tangga, pihak yang acap disalahkan karena dikira ikut-ikutan berspekulasi.
Masalahnya, menurut Theo, selain tuduhan itu tak benar karena jumlahnya tak seberapa dibandingan dengan aktivitas pasar uang, pemikiran para ibu sangat simpel. Jika dulu mudah menghitung depresiasi, 3-4% setahun, siapa sangka tiba-tiba depresiasi bisa 20% dalam sehari? Kalau punya simpanan Rupiah dan berbunga, katakanlah 40%, pada akhir tahun tak akan mencapai jumlah jika didolarkan. Pada akhirnya memang tak ada pihak yang bisa disalahkan kalau terjadi perburuan mata uang asing, karena negara menganut rezim devisa bebas.
Pasar uang dunia memang sulit dilawan. Kalau kekayaan Big Boys sangat besar, itu konsekuensi dari hakikat pasar uang. "Istilahnya a snowball business, bisnis yang menggelinding bagai bola salju. Orang harus jadi besar untuk survive." Bisnis pasar uang menurut Theo, menganut filosofi dasar bukan soal berapa jumlah uang yang akan Anda peroleh, melainkan berapa jumlah uang yang siap Anda habiskan. Gambarannya, jika seseorang kerja keras sepanjang tahun hingga memperoleh uang Rp 1 miliar, akan sangat keliru kalau menggunakannya untuk main forex. Tetapi jika seseorang mendapat lotere Rp 1 miliar, yang Rp 800 juta untuk beli rumah/tanah, Rp 100 juta untuk beli kendaraan, dan sisanya untuk main forex, silakan saja. "Maka, kalau ada seorang fund manager siap menghabiskan AS $ 5 miliar di pasar forex, tak terbayang berapa besar kekayaannya"
Bisnis di pasar uang tak sama dengan judi. Kata Theo, jika judi nasib pelaku 100% tergantung pada kartu, "Di pasar uang ada hal-hal yang bisa diperhitungkan dan dicarikan peluang."
Menurut Theo, ada 7 tingkat yang harus dicapai untuk betul-betul memahami bisnis ini. Selain 4 faktor penentu nilai mata uang yang sudah disebut tadi, ada beberapa hal lain seperti lobi atau hubungan, termasuk kemampuan berbahasa, faktor intelijen alias daya endus informasi, dan hal paling abstrak dan sulit, sehingga orang tak sanggup berpikir lagi. "Misalnya, semua faktor telah terpenuhi, prediksi sudah dilakukan, tapi tak ada action. Ketika faktanya sama dengan yang sebelumnya telah diperhitungkan, muncul rasa sesal kenapa tidak begini kenapa tidak begitu. Itulah yang saya maksud tingkat ketujuh."
Sekalipun menggiurkan, bisnis di pasar uang penuh kekecewaan. "Karena apa? It's about money. Orang hanya tergiur melihat angka. Mereka ramai-ramai bermain, sementara tatanan dan hukumnya tak mudah dipelajari. Lagi pula dunia itu sudah dikuasai Mafia, Big Boys, dalam cara kerja yang terintegrasi. Apa pun permainan para pendatang, mafia-lah yang memperoleh keuntungan"
Menurut Theo, setelah perang dingin reda dan komunisme runtuh, tak ada lagi kekuatan yang punya daya penghancur sangat dahsyat selain uang. "Ketika uang menjadi komoditas, dampaknya global. Bencana keuangan di suatu negara segera bisa merembet ke negara lain. Siapa sekarang orang kaya di kawasan krisis yang merasa terjamin hingga 7 keturunan? Tak terbayangkan, uang bisa berlipat kali atau hancur sama sekali hanya dalam hitungan hari."
Jika ditarik ke dimensi filosofis, kata Theo, krisis ekonomi adalah akibat ulah manusia yang menganggap uang sebagai ideologi. Fakta menunjukkan, miliaran AS $ telah menguap entah ke mana. Lembaga keuangan banyak yang rugi, Soros rugi, demikian pula para Big Boys. Tak jelas ke mana uang-uang itu pergi.
"Inilah tanda-tanda zaman," kata Theo. "Tuhan kasih antibiotik untuk mereka yang terlalu menghamba pada uang. Orang kaya pusing, konglomerat pusing. Rasain." disadur dari ishak fatary http://fatary.com sumber pstingan from http://www.belajarvalas.com
WESTERN EUROPE TIME (GMT + 00:00)
( FOREX FUNDAMENTAL)EURO Mnenunggu Data Manufacturing PMI (24/07/08)
istilah2 strategy tester
GrossLoss : Nilai total kerugian dari semua transaksi yang rugi
Total nett profit : [GrossProfit – GrossLoss]
ProfitFactor : [GrossProfit / GrossLoss]
Expected Payoff : [(ProfitTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossProfit / ProfitTrades) – (LossTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossLoss / LossTrades)]
TotalTrades : Jumlah total transaksi
ProfitTrades : Jumlah transaksi yang untung
LossTrades : Jumlah transaksi yang rugi
AbsoluteDrawdown : Selisih antara nilai deposit awal dan nilai balance terkecil selama test
: [InitialDeposit – MinimalBalance]
MaximalDrawdown : Selisih terbesar antara satu puncak grafik tertinggi dan palung terendah sesudahnya
: [Max of (Maximal Peak – next Minimal Peak)]
MaxDrawdown % : [MaxDrawdown / MaxPeak * 100%]
Short positions (won %) : Profitable short positions / total amount of short positions * 100%
Long positions (won %) : Profitable long positions / total amount of long positions * 100%
Profit trades (% of total) : [ProfitTrades / TotalTrades * 100%]
Loss trades (% of total) : [LossTrades / TotalTrades * 100%]
Largest profit trade : Keuntungan terbesar di antara seluruh transaksi yang untung
Largest loss trade : Kerugian terbesar di antara seluruh transaksi yang rugi
Average profit trade : Nilai rata-rata profit dari transaksi yang untung
: [GrossProfit / ProfitTrades]
Average loss trade : Nilai rata-rata loss dari transaksi yang rugi
: [GrossLoss / LossTrades]
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) : Jumlah keseluruhan transaksi yang profit berturutan dan jumlah total nilai profitnya tersebut
Maximum consecutive losses (loss in money) : Jumlah keseluruhan transaksi yang loss berturutan dan jumlah total nilai lossnya tersebut
Maximal consecutive (count of wins) : Profit terbesar dari transaksi untung yang berturutan dan
jumlah total transaksinya tersebut
Maximal consecutive (count of losses) : Loss terbesar dari transaksi rugi yang berturutan dan
jumlah total transaksinya tersebut
Average consecutive wins: Jumlah rata-rata transaksi yang untung secara berturutan
Average consecutive losses: Jumlah rata-rata transaksi yang rugi secara berturuta
2008 Release Schedule for the National Economic Accounts (U.S)
2008 Release Schedule for the National Economic Accounts (U.S)
Subject | Release Date+ | Time |
---|---|---|
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2007 (advance) | January 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, December 2007 | January 31 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2007 (preliminary) | February 28 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, January 2008 | February 29 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2007 (final); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter 2007 | March 27 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, February 2008 | March 28 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2008 (advance) | April 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, March 2008 | May 1 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2008 (preliminary); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2008 (preliminary) | May 29 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, April 2008 | May 30 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2008 (final); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2008 (revised) | June 26 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, May 2008 | June 27 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2008 (advance) | July 31 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2008 | August 4 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2008 (preliminary); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2008 (preliminary) | August 28 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, July 2008 | August 29 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2008 (final); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2008 (revised) | September 26 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2008 | September 29 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2008 (advance) | October 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2008 | October31 | 10:00 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2008 (preliminary); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2008 (preliminary) | November 25 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, October 2008 | November 26 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2008 (final); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2008 (revised) | December 23 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, November 2008 | December 24 | 8:30 am |
Forek itu mudah??!!!
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Forex Itu Gampang" Apakah anda pernah mendengar atau membaca kalimat itu dari para trader forex, pengajar forex "Forex Itu Gampang" Apakah anda pernah mendengar atau membaca kalimat itu dari para trader forex, pengajar forex diseminar-seminar yang mereka adakan atau bahkan dari para master forex..?? Namun, apakah benar demikian?? "May be No May Be Yes". Bagaimana dengan statement yang menyatakan bahwa lebih dari 90% trader pemula mengalami loss..??. Tidak bisa di pungkiri bahwa itu benar suatu kenyataan dan saya rasa anda sudah pasti pernah merasakan LOSS di forex. Saya Bahkan berani mengklaim bahwa forex itu sangat-sangat susah, tidak perlu jauh-jauh menilainya cukup dari mengenal istilah-istilah yang ada di forex misalkan, MACD, MA, EA, SL, TP, TS, TIME FRAME, CANDLE STICK, FIBO, BOLINGER BAND, PARABOLIC, dan lain-lain yang tentunya bagi orang awam tidak akan mengerti, itu hanya dari istilahnya saja belum lagi menjalankan sistem dari istilah-istilah tersebut di "lapangan". Yang lebih parahnya lagi bahwa kebanyakan yang mengatakan forex itu gampang adalah dari kalangan pemula atau trader yang baru mulai di dunia forex dalam artian disini trader yang punya pengalaman di bawah 6 bulan dan berani mengklaim forex itu "gampang" dan mungkin mereka berani mengatakan hal itu karena lagi profit diawal-awal tradingnya, maka timbul lah niat untuk lebih serius di dunia forex dengan percaya diri yang sangat tinggi sehingga berani melakukan spekulasi-spekulasi yang menurut Om "Money Management" sangat beresiko tinggi atau high risk yang pada akhirnya dapat mengakibatkan kebangkrutan si trader itu sendiri. Forex butuh Ilmu, Modal dan Hoki, dimana bila ketiga unsur itu tidak ada jangan berharap bisa meraih keuntungan di dunia forex. Bahkan saya pribadi berani mengorban waktu, uang dan tenaga untuk bisa mempelajari dan memperoleh ilmu forex ketimbangkan saya hanya mengandalkan keyakinan semata dalam mengambil keputusan dalam trading yang nantinya membuat kita berani melakukan spekulasi tanpa ilmu forex itu sendiri sehingga dapat mengakibatkan hal terburuk yang tidak di inginkan oleh setiap trader.Ada beberapa tips yang ingin saya berikan kepada teman-teman trader yang mungkin bisa bermanfaat untuk perkembangan trading anda :
1. Forex meliputi teknikal dan fundamental, maka pelajarilah kedua ilmu itu baik melalui buku, forum, seminar, e-book, atau ke orang-orang yang lebih berpengalaman di bidang tersebut.
2. Demo Account, Banyak trader yang telah bermain 'Live Account' namun tidak mau lagi bermain dengan 'Demo Account' sebagai pembelajaran, padahal dengan selalu belajar pada demo account akan menambah pengalaman, volume atau kapasitas melakukan open posisi yang di dasari dengan sistem yang sedang di pelajari yang nantinya dapat di gunakan pada account live sehingga kita dapat menilai sistem apa yang bagus dan cocok bagi kita untuk benar-benar dapat di gunakan bila nanti kita terapkan pada live account.
3. Cobalah untuk membuat satu club trader di kotamu sebagai ajang untuk berkumpul dan membahas tentang forex sehingga anda bisa saling sharing dengan sesama trader dan bila perlu undanglah orang yang lebih berpengalaman di bidang forex sebagai "SUHU" yang dapat memberikan petunjuk dan pengalamannya bagi anda dan minimal anda dapat membuat satu forum khusus untuk menyatukan trader-trader tersebut, hal ini penting karena forex adalah ilmu tanpa batas sehingga ilmu-ilmu itu harus update dan anda harus selalu mengikutinya. 4. Cari Dan Bentuklah style trading anda sendiri karena belum tentu sistem trading orang lain cocok untuk anda gunakan dan begitu juga sebaliknya. Anda hanya perlu lebih banyak latihan untuk mengenal karakter tiap pair baik secara teknikal maupun secara fundamental, hal ini berguna agar kita lebih peka terhadap situasi market.
5. Mental dan Emosional sangat berperan penting dalam dunia forex, cobalah berlatih untuk membangun mental dan emosional anda, dengan lebih sering bersosialisasi dengan orang lain sebagai salah satu alternatif untuk menilai seberapa baik mental dan emosional anda menghadapi orang lain disekitar anda yang tentunya nanti dapat mempengaruhi kinerja trading anda. Kesimpulan dari artikel saya ini adalah trading forex itu butuh pengetahuan dan tidak boleh di remehkan, hari ini anda boleh senang dengan profit yang anda hasilkan, akan tetapi bisa jadi anda akan mengalami loss di hari berikutnya dan perlu anda ingat bahwa jarak antara profit dan loss itu sangat "TIPIS" ibarat antara jarak senang dan sedih. Kita tidak perlu harus menghasilkan profit yang banyak di setiap trading, namun hal yang terpenting adalah bagaimana anda bisa tetap terus kontinue dan exist di dunia forex sehingga untuk kedepannya forex ini bisa kita jadikan tumpuan masa depan menuju "TRADING FOR LIVING". Semoga Sukses..! Ishak Fatary
(forex fundamental)Consumer Price Index {CPI}
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Jumat, 01 Agustus 2008
(SINYAL FOREX) FREE SIGNALFOREX TODAY FOR USD/JPY(01/08/08)
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Open USD/JPY long @ 107.85SL 107.70 TP 108.00. PADA NANTI MALAM PUKUL 19:30WIB U.S AKAN MERILIS DATA NFP(NON FARM PAYROLL),Non Farm Payroll adalah indikator untuk mengukur besarnya pengeluaran pemerintah dalam pembayaran gaji di luar sektor pertanian di bandingkan bulan sebelumnya,dan apabila meningkatnyajumlah non farm payroll maka mata uang negara akan meningkat secara drastis puluhan hingga ratusam point: jangan lewatkan news nya nanti malam pukul 19:30 WIB
(forex fundamental)Jul 31 21:43 GMT Sponsor Forex Brokers Mid-Day Report: Dollar Tumbles on GDP & Jobless Claims, But Supported by Chicago PMI
Dollar retreats further against most major currencies in early US session Q2 GDP missed expectation and grew at 1.9% annualized rate. GDP price index was rose much less than expected at 1.1%. Personal consumption grew 1.5% while PCE core was also below expecting, growing 2.1%. Jobless claims released today surged sharply to 448k, adding more pressure to the greenback. Though, better than expected Chicago PMI is providing some support to the greenback.
Nevertheless, the retreat in dollar is somewhat expected from a technical point of view on overbought condition. With near term support still holding, the overall short term dollar bullish outlook doesn't change but will probably need a solid NFP number tomorrow to trigger another rally.
Canadian dollar remains in tight range against the greenback after data showed the economy unexpectedly contracted by -0.1% mom in May. Aussie continued to be weighed down by disappointing retail sales released overnight and recovers relatively much weaker than other majors. Retail sales miss expectation and dropped -1.0% mom in Jun. Australia trade balance unexpectedly showed 411M surplus in Jun.
Eurozone Jul HICP flash released earlier today showed inflation climbed to 16 years high of 4.1% yoy. Unemployment rate also climbed from 7.2% to 7.3% in Jun. Data from UK saw Gfk consumer confidence tumbled to record low of -39 in Jul. Nationwide house price dropped more than expected by -1.7% mom, -8.1% yoy in Jul. Swiss CPI dropped -0.4% mom, rose 3.1% yoy in Jul, above expectation of -0.5% mom, 3.0% yoy. Some volatility is seen in EUR/GBP but after all the cross is still staying in tight range. Weakness is more apparent in the Swissy as seen in strength in both EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF crosses.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0441; (P) 1.0481; (R1) 1.0522; More
USD/CHF's retreat from 1.0520 continues as expected. As discussed before, mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD suggests that USD/CHF could now be in consolidation to whole rise fro 1.0010. More choppy sideway trading could be seen with risk of pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0357). But still, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0314 support and bring another rise. On the upside, though, break of 1.0520 will indicate rise from 1.0010 has resumed for 1.0623 resistance.
In the bigger picture, recent development indicates that correction from 1.0623 should have completed at 1.0010 after meeting 61.8% retracement of 0.9634 to 1.0623 at 1.0012. Also, with 0.9995 structural support still holding, medium term rebound from 0.9634 is still in progress. Break of 1.0539 will argue that such medium term rebound has resumed for next cluster resistance (100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.0999, 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028 for completion. On the downside, break of 0.9995/1.0010 support zone is needed to indicate that rise from 0.9634 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor even in case of a deep short term pull back.
(by actionforex)
Kamis, 31 Juli 2008
2008 Release Schedule for the National Economic Accounts
2008 Release Schedule for the National Economic Accounts (U.S)
Subject | Release Date+ | Time |
---|---|---|
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2007 (advance) | January 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, December 2007 | January 31 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2007 (preliminary) | February 28 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, January 2008 | February 29 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2007 (final); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter 2007 | March 27 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, February 2008 | March 28 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2008 (advance) | April 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, March 2008 | May 1 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2008 (preliminary); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2008 (preliminary) | May 29 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, April 2008 | May 30 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2008 (final); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2008 (revised) | June 26 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, May 2008 | June 27 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2008 (advance) | July 31 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2008 | August 4 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2008 (preliminary); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2008 (preliminary) | August 28 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, July 2008 | August 29 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2008 (final); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2008 (revised) | September 26 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2008 | September 29 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2008 (advance) | October 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2008 | October31 | 10:00 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2008 (preliminary); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2008 (preliminary) | November 25 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, October 2008 | November 26 | 8:30 am |
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2008 (final); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2008 (revised) | December 23 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income and Outlays, November 2008 | December 24 | 8:30 am |
(forex fundamental)data AS;GDP,NFP akan menhan penguatan dollar
(forex fundamental) news euro/usd (31/07/08)02:55 WIB
European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.5515/1.5675
Trend Sessions: European: Neutral/Downward
US: Neutral
Market Focus: 8:15 AM ADP Employment, 5:00 AM Consumer Confidence.
Daily Strategy: The fears for US recession over yesterday after the release of US Consumer Confidence. The US economy is not so bad and probably will avoid the recession. The positive news for the US economy helps to the dollar and the oil to recovery. For today we expect to see slowly recovery as overall are necessary new proofs for the situation of US economy. For today we expect to see slowly continue of the dollar recovery.
(forex fundamental) ADP:Automatic Data Processing,sektor tenaga kerja di AS mengalami peningkatan
Rabu, 30 Juli 2008
(forex fundamental) US data leads rebound in US stock and greenback (11:45 wib)
DOLLAR RALLY SET TO CONTINUE(FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS)
Dollar Rally Set to Continue(30/07/08)23/30 GMT/05:05 WIB
The recoveries in the US dollar and equities have been very impressive. In yesterday's Daily Fundamentals, we said that "despite today's move, the dollar's rally may not be over." Gold continues to provide a strong indication of the market's risk appetite and dollar sentiment. If you want to figure out if investors are really nervous, just take a look at gold. Today, gold prices have fallen by another $10 to $919.00 an ounce. This suggests that the dollar's rally is set to continue. There could and will probably be retracements, but the overall trend of the dollar is up. As previously indicated by the bounce in the University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers, sentiment in the US has improved according to the Conference Board's survey. Although jobs are increasingly "hard to get," consumers are starting to accept the current state of the US economy as the way of life. This does not mean that the troubles are behind us because house prices in May fell by the largest amount on record. Going forward, the stability of the US economy will depend on oil prices staying low. Crude is trading at approximately $121 a barrel and as long as it remains at current levels or falls further, inflation and inflation expectations will ease. Not only will this loosen the noose for central banks around the world, but it will also provide respite for consumers and businesses. In turn, this will add further fuel to the dollar which we expect to break 1.55 against the Euro and at least 109 against the Japanese Yen. However keep in mind that even if the dollar is rallying, it does not necessarily mean that the US economy is stabilizing. Instead, it represents a realignment of expectations. The weakness of the US economy has already been priced into the market, but the deterioration in places like the Eurozone, New Zealand and the UK is catching many traders by surprise. This has triggered weakness for the Euro, New Zealand dollar and British pound. Looking ahead, the ADP Employment report is due for release tomorrow. The market expects private sector employment to fall by 60k jobs. Although the report is a leading indicator for non-farm payrolls, traders need to be careful of relying solely on this report since it can have a shaky track record.(Action forex)
Selasa, 29 Juli 2008
LONDON SESSION RECAP (29/07/08)19:17WIB
SINYAL FOREX HARI INI/FREE FOREX SINYAL FOR (29/07/08)
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Open USD/JPY long @ 107.39 SL 107.06 TP 107.84.
RILIS DATA PERUMAHAN AS DI PERKIRAKAN KEMBALI MELEMAH(29/07/08) 14:10 WIB
US MARKET UPDATE (28/07/08)17:02GMT
In currencies, the USD continued it mild looses against the majors, but is off its worst level as oil pares its gains. Comments from an NBC interview snippet with Iran's president helped to offset the earlier supply concerns following the MEND attack in Nigeria. The Iranian president noted as saying that oil prices are "not realistic." The EUR/USD cross is trading at the 1.5730 level. Dealers are noting good buying among Russian names in recent sessions. The Russian Central Bank disclosed that it has reduced its holdings in theGSEs to under $50B from levels around $100B at the start of 2008.
In Europe the German CPI data for North Rhine-Westphalia CPI came in at 0.6% for the month of July, but this has had little impact given oils rapid deterioration in recent weeks. The pound has shugged off the Hometracks disclosure that UK house prices have fallen for a tenth consecutive month. In addition, there are growing calls among analysts that the BoE will be forced to cut the UK base rate early by early 2009. The EUR/JPY pair is within striking distance of fresh all-time highs, but dealers are continue to note an option barrier at the 170 level.
Senin, 28 Juli 2008
LONDON SESSION RECAP (28/07/08)20:25 WIB
London Session Recap(28/07/08)20:25
Credit concerns continued to plague US marts and led to some selling of the buck in the London session. A news report cited Minneapolis Fed President Stern, a noted hawk, saying that the US credit crunch is poised to worsen. Traders had nothing else to bite on and thus took this as a sign to sell the greenback.
EUR/USD was higher despite the German GfK consumer confidence report coming in at a weaker than expected 2.1 for August after a 3.6 print for the prior month. This continued the trend of deteriorating economic data out of the Euro-zone. And whether it is businesses or consumers, the data have not been pretty of late. EUR/USD opened the session near 1.5715 and was sitting near the session highs at 1.5760 at the close.
Sterling (GBP/USD) lost some ground against the buck as a report by the Land Registry showed home prices fell -1% in June, the biggest monthly drop on record (survey started in 2000). This pushed Sterling from an open near 1.9895 to a session low near 1.9840. The pair would close around the 1.9880 mark.
USD/JPY saw some very choppy trading, but ended the session lower nonetheless. The pair opened near 107.80 and closed around the 107.65 level. Given the intensified concerns about US credit markets -- on Stern’s comments -- USD/JPY is likely to follow the goings on in US stock markets today. If fear grips the market once again, look for sharp declines in banking stocks and JPY crosses to move lower.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) Prior Estimate
- 7/28 16:00 GMT US Fed's Mishkin Speaks on Communication in Washington (By action forex)
DOLLAR MELEMAH ,KEKHAWATIRAN PASAR KREDIT AS(28/07/08)20:00 WIB
Euro Holds Its Own as German Sentiment Hits Lowest Level in 5 Years A relatively quiet start to trade this week as global calendar is virtually barre
Euro Holds Its Own as German Sentiment Hits Lowest Level in 5 Years
A relatively quiet start to trade this week as global calendar is virtually barren. The EURUSD traded on either side of 157.00 for most of the Asian and early European session, but took s small tumble after GFK consumer sentiment registered its worst reading in 5 years. GFK fell to 2.1 from 3.5 hitting lows not seen since 2003 as high oil prices, high interest rates and a slowdown in global demand depressed the region's consumers despite the near record value of currency exchange rates.
The news suggests that the slowdown in US economy has now crossed the ocean and made its unwelcome presence felt on the other side of the Atlantic. Given the massive decline in European consumer sentiment, which is likely to cause a similar collapse in spending, it is difficult to imagine how the ECB would raise rates any further for the rest of this year. Nevertheless despite a slew of negative economic data over the past week, the EURUSD has managed to hold on to its gains to a remarkable degree as currency traders continue to view the unit as a safer alternative to the dollar.
With the greenback clearly stabilized for now, the question forward is can its nascent the rally continue for another week? The answer as is so often the case may depend on the NFPs'. The front of the week may actually prove dollar positive as flash GDP for Q2 could show surprising strength of 2% versus only 1% the quarter prior. However, the labor data holds the key. If NFPs surprise to the downside, most importantly breaking the -100K barrier, dollar longs will be hard pressed to push the unit higher. Weakening labor markets will only convince the dollar bears that the worst for the US economy lies ahead.
With nothing on the calendar in the North America session today, trading is likely to be driven by macro factors as market players will look to oil and commodity index as well as equities for clues to direction. The data this week is very back end loaded and unless we see significant movements in other markets currencies are likely to remain in this quiet range for the rest of the day.(Actionforex.com)